Minnesota Farmers Union

(April 23, 2010) - Soybeans have been the bright spot in US crop exports, increasing by 76 percent over the last 12 years after remaining variable but with a flat trend over the prior 18 years (Fig. 1). US soybean exports peaked in 1981 at 929 million bushels and did not reach that level again until 1999. The increase in US soybean exports coincides with the point at which China began to become a major factor in world soybean imports.

When looking at bulk agricultural commodity exports the conventional wisdom has held that as the US exchange rate has declined, US exports of these commodities has increased. Two weeks ago we examined corn and saw that relationship between corn exports and the trade weighted exchange rate for US corn importers was significant between 1970 and 1991 (http://agpolicy.org/weekcol/506.html). During the 1992-2009 period there is no significant relationship between the two.

US Wheat showed a similar pattern of a significant relationship between US exports and the trade weighted exchange rate for US wheat importers in the 1970-1989 period (http://agpolicy.org/weekcol/507.html). This pattern did not hold for the 1990-2009 period.

(March 19, 2010) - In our last three columns we have looked at the production of corn, wheat, and soybeans and the exports of corn, wheat, and soybean complex. This column looks at the sum of the three crops to give a broader picture of agriculture and particularly of the crops that account for the utilization of the majority of the acres of US cropland.

Between 1980 and 2009, the world production of corn, wheat, and soybeans grew by 86 percent, increasing from 926 million metric tons to 1.73 billion metric tons (Fig. 1 solid red line). During that same period, the world population grew from 4.5 billion people to 6.8 billion, an increase of 51 percent. On average, the world production of the three crops grew at a rate 40 percent faster than population.

World exports of corn, wheat and soybean complex grew from 218 million metric tons to 362 million metric tons during the 30 year period beginning in 1980 (Fig. 1 dashed blue line), an increase of 66 percent as nations relied less and less on imports of these crops.

Figure 1. World Production of the total of corn, wheat and soybeans and exports of the total of corn, wheat, and soybean complex, 1980-2009. Data Source: USDA.

(March 12, 2010) - Telling the story of soybean exports over the last 30 years requires a little more work than for corn and wheat. The primary products of soybeans-soybean meal and soybean oil-play a much larger role in exports than do the corresponding products of corn and wheat. As a result, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) tracks production and utilization data for soybean meal and soybean oil separately from unprocessed beans.

To get a picture of the scope of world trade that results from the raising of soybeans, we have added the meal and oil numbers to those of unprocessed soybeans to create a variable known as soybean complex. This is particularly important because exporters and importers trade in various proportions of the three products. As a result, looking at soybeans alone gives an incomplete picture of the impact of trade on the producers of soybeans.